As compared to the current situation, Bitcoin mining will consume 916% more energy by 2040, but only if BTC is $2 million.
According to a study by Arcane Research analysts, the energy costs of mining the first cryptocurrency could increase over ten times the current level of electricity consumption in 17 years. However, this will happen only if the value of BTC is about $2 million.
Study author Jaran Mellerud argues that Bitcoin’s energy consumption directly correlates with the BTC price, transaction fees, and electricity costs. The author claims that if BTC reaches $2 million in 17 years, the Bitcoin network will consume 894 TWh per year, a 916% increase over current levels. However, despite the impressive numbers, BTC will only account for 0.36% of global energy consumption in 2040.
Mellerud also says that if the market continues to be bearish over the next 17 years, BTC energy consumption will not see such significant growth. For example, if BTC is at $500,000 by 2040, the energy consumption of mining farms will only rise by 153% to 223 TWh per year. And if the price is around $100,000, the energy consumption will decline twice and amount to just 45 TWh per year.
The study’s author also pointed out that Bitcoin’s power consumption will reach this level only if BTC “succeeds as money.” That is, the demand for using BTC as a payment instrument will also affect energy consumption.
Recent studies have shown that Bitcoin’s energy efficiency is much higher than that of the traditional banking system, which consumes 56 times more electricity. Large BTC miners are switching more and more to green energy sources, increasing their balance to almost 60% in the past year. Besides, Bitcoin miners only consume 0.15% of global electricity.
