Analysts predict an active growth for the tokenized real-world assets (RWA) market. However, forecasts differ widely, with the most optimistic ones suggesting the RWA market could exceed $30 trillion by 2034.
According to analysts at Standard Chartered Bank and Synpulse, the tokenized assets market could reach $30.1 trillion by 2034. They believe that 16% of the total market volume will be composed of trade finance assets. The report also notes that at the beginning of 2024, the RWA market size, excluding stablecoins, will be about $5 billion.
However, the Wall Street analysts’ forecast seems overly optimistic. Jamie Coutts, analyst at Real Vision, expressed this opinion. He says that the volume of the RWA market could reach ~$1.3 trillion by 2030. His estimate is based on the current two-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 121%. Yet even this growth, according to the analyst, will significantly impact the development of other areas of the Web3 industry.
Moreover, he suggests that the Ethereum ecosystem, particularly the Layer 2 (L2) protocols, will reap the most benefits from the expansion of the RWA market. They could capture between 95% and 99% of the total accumulated value through tokenized asset placements. This situation may intensify competition between the Ethereum mainnet and L2 solutions within its ecosystem.
Analysts at McKinsey & Company also maintain a more cautious assessment of the future of the tokenized assets market. They estimate its volume could range from $2 trillion to $4 trillion by 2030, depending on different factors. They note that the industry’s active development will require use cases that offer market participants advantages over traditional financial systems. The issuance of tokenized bonds is cited as an example of such a scenario.
In 2024, the market for tokenized U.S. Treasury bonds exceeded $1 billion for the first time, with analysts predicting that the market could grow to $3 billion by the end of this year. Other tokenization use cases are also emerging. For example, Chainlink is working on new scenarios for using tokenized real estate. Another example of RWA application can be seen in Diamond Standard, a company that uses tokenization for real assets in the diamond market. CP Media explored this case more thoroughly here.
