Prediction markets let participants estimate the probability of future events through market mechanisms. Rather than relying on dozens of forecasts about elections, central bank interest rates, the price of Bitcoin, or the outcome of a sporting event, users can see how the market prices a specific outcome. These platforms are often referred to as information markets because market prices reflect the collective expectations of participants and adjust continuously as new information emerges. The concept isn’t new. Iowa Electronic Markets (IEM), an academic election forecasting platform...
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