CoinsPaid Media asked an ICB CryptoFund analyst to share his opinion on what is currently going on in the cryptocurrency market and what we can expect in the near future.
Chen Limin, CFO and head of trading operations at ICB fund, commented on the current situation as follows: “Since the Fed meeting, the cryptocurrency market has pulled away from what’s happening on Wall Street due to the bears’ defeat while struggling to break through Bitcoin price lows from the beginning of the year, which were in the $18,000 to $18,800 range. This may have created a sense that the worst associated with the impact of monetary policy is over, and digital assets will at least continue to consolidate at current levels in the coming months.”
The expert believes that the first weeks of October will confirm the validity of this assumption. There are two major macroeconomic events ahead that will test the cryptocurrency market for sustainability: the October 7, 2022 labor market report and the October 12-13, 2022 inflation update.
“There might be a situation where Bitcoin becomes a leading indicator of investor attitudes toward risk in general. This will be possible if fresh macrostatistics reduce the probability of further Fed policy tightening at the November-December meetings. At the same time, the absence of grounds for such scenarios will land a blow to the U.S. stock market with a renewal of new lows. Moreover, this is where the institutional stance will matter: how willing they will be to take a hit in Bitcoin and Ethereum. If they do not show such capabilities and willingness, then the current rebound can be attributed to technical factors — the correlation of digital assets with the Nasdaq will recover to previous levels. The latter cannot be ruled out because both the derivatives market and the onchain data do not indicate the restoration of optimism — rather the preservation of a balanced situation,” forecasts the expert.
Macroeconomic and technical factors continue to be the main drivers of the cryptocurrency market. No major events are expected this month, such as The Merge in the Ethereum network. On top of this, the widely announced Vasil hard fork in the Cardano network had almost no effect on the value of ADA. On the other hand, there is a positive sentiment in Ripple. The project’s fight with the SEC for XRP status has encouraged investors, however, it did not have a positive effect on the market. According to the analyst, investors understand that similar processes may occur in other projects.
“The only thing that stands out in the events calendar is the October 1 launch of Theta Network (THETA), a testnet project that has developed a decentralized video streaming network. The project ranks 45th by market capitalization.
Taking all the above into consideration, the BTC price could hypothetically reach $21,600 in October, if current trends stay the same, and then it will move to the support zone of $18,000 – $18,800 again. After ETH returns to $1,450-1,500, we can expect its rollback to $1,200,” concludes the expert.
