The trend for Metaverse development was set by Mark Zuckerberg, who in late October 2021, announced the transformation of Facebook into Meta and a course on developing Metaverse technologies. The impulse was so powerful that throughout 2022, the Metaverse remained in the spotlight. It’ll rightfully take its place in all sorts of summaries and rankings.
CP Media’s “Key Trends in the Blockchain Industry in 2022” also included Metaverses.
The biggest Metaverse projects held large-scale events. Global brands launched Web3 initiatives, including NFT minting, digital asset trading, and developing offices in Metaverses. The first two points were almost always related to the third.
The Financial Times predicts a “gold rush” in the Metaverse sector in 2023, but is this forecast justified? Well, the answer to this rhetorical question is in the column’s title. There are several main reasons for this opinion:
- The cryptocurrency market is experiencing a severe downturn. This is caused by the macroeconomic factors and internal cycles of Bitcoin, which is the driving force behind the industry. In 2023, the situation probably won’t improve. Under such conditions, Metaverse crypto projects simply won’t get excessive funding and attention.
- The development of the Metaverse sphere requires the development and massive adoption of technological innovations. First of all, it concerns VR technologies and network infrastructure. This, in turn, involves investments and technological base development. However, in 2023, we’ll have to compete with arms manufacturers and their delivery vehicles for microelectronics.
- The conflict in Ukraine and several other potential disputes, the largest of which is looming around Taiwan, have already led to the increased demand for weapons. Modern weaponry requires, among other things, microelectronics, whose production scale is limited. So, what is the priority for “decision makers” in the current historical period: Metaverses or war? Sadly, the answer is obvious.
It, therefore, turns out that the Metaverse is very cool, interesting, and fascinating. However, there are no economic or technological prerequisites for developing Metaverse technologies and their more or less widespread implementation in their present form in 2023. Not to mention the full-fledged realization of the Metaverse concept, clearly demonstrated in the movie “Ready Player One.” We’re a world away from it.
A similar view is expressed by Huawei experts. They single out infrastructure as the fundamental level required for the development of Metaverses. However, according to Huawei, only 25% of the world’s population will have access to 5G by 2025. And that’s not to mention VR headsets that can provide a fully immersive experience with comfortable and long-lasting use.
The Block Research reports that monthly trading volume in the Metaverse sector is down by 96% by the end of 2022 compared to January’s figures. Prices for land in Metaverse projects also fell by 90% since the beginning of the year. This eloquently demonstrates ordinary users’ interest in the sector.
If we go back to Meta, which set the trend for Metaverses, we can see that about a year after the landmark rebranding, the media began to publish critical materials. The crux of these articles revolved around the question: where did the $15 billion investment go? The €1,800 Quest Pro VR headset with no cost-appropriate uses and no more legless avatars in Horizon Worlds clearly failed to impress the public and investors. Despite the rumors, Zuckerberg retained his position as CEO and has no plans to change course.
Basically, developments will continue. However, it isn’t worth waiting for an excessive rise or technological breakthrough in 2023. Metaverses will probably remain a mix of MMORPG and Minecraft with blockchain technology elements such as NFTs and crypto tokens. However, the situation may change in 2024-2025, especially considering China’s plans to become the market leader in VR technology by 2026.
