Post-Halving World, or What Awaits Crypto Market in April and Onward?

What to expect from the crypto market in April 2024? With Bitcoin’s halving on the horizon, the market is on the rise. But what other factors will shake up the crypto market in the coming month? We asked some crypto enthusiasts and experts to share their short-term predictions with CP Media.

What to Expect from Bitcoin Right After Halving?

Daniel Kennedy, Director at Mercurity Fintech Holding, notes that Bitcoin has dragged the entire cryptocurrency market along, soaring to new all-time highs — BTC is up over 320% from its November 2022 lows. The largest digital asset by market cap is experiencing increased demand thanks to the tailwind of recently approved spot ETFs and the impending halving — the hype is at record levels, with overall negative press absent. It’s the perfect storm for a Bitcoin rally.

“Bitcoin is governed by pure supply and demand economics. This means that the halving, which will reduce mining rewards from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC by the end of April 2024, will also cut supply, which means a price increase should follow. However, based on the historical data related to the three previous halvings, significant volatility can be expected. All this contributes to the ambiguous forecasts among experts and the media — opinions about further growth are balanced with expectations of a serious sell-off,” shared Daniel.

“The BTC price will swing intensely in April, as it benefits the institutional investors who brought their habits from the stock market to the crypto market. They aren’t aiming for growth or decline, but for higher market volatility to profit using trading bots, the trend of which is set to take place in Q2-Q3 this year. Institutional investors have been trading for decades and have entered the digital asset market prepared, while the younger generation, for whom cryptocurrency was destined, lack such experience,” Vitaly Shishkin, Marketer at MatrixBot, further developed the ideas of the previous expert.

Vitaly also believes that the halving will affect the increase in BTC price volatility, as the reduction in rewards per block will influence the Bitcoin network’s stability. Many miners will be forced to shut down their activities, and transactions will be processed at different speeds in April — quickly on some days, slowly on others. When the network operates slowly, transaction fees will increase greatly as everyone will want to speed up their transfers. This will temporarily stabilize the number of miners. The price of BTC will have to react to all of this.

“Media personalities, caught up in the frenzy, will surely manipulate the market again. First, we’ll see them support Bitcoin, and then a planned loss of interest will occur — in such a situation, Bitcoin will fluctuate significantly. Institutional investors are aware of this strategy and will expect such conditions for profitable trading with the help of algorithms,” summarizes Vitaly.

Ryan Lee, Chief Analyst at Bitget, expects BTC to fluctuate between $62,000 and $90,000 in April. According to the expert, the main reasons are:

1. Spot Bitcoin ETFs will continue to play a crucial role in fund inflows. Since the launch of these instruments, Wall Street has accumulated over 200,000 BTC, driving the price of BTC to $73,000. Spot Bitcoin ETFs are expected to continue to serve as a gateway for fund inflows in April, thereby boosting the spot price of BTC.
2. Bitcoin’s halving expected in mid-April. After the halving, the daily issuance of Bitcoin will drop to 450 BTC, with an annual increase of only about 160,000 BTC, equivalent to just one month’s worth of purchases on Wall Street. 

“Given the ongoing purchases by issuers of spot Bitcoin ETFs and the halving effect, the next BTC bull market will arrive early, and April will be an important month setting the trend for the next few months,” predicts Ryan.

Max Kalmykov, CEO of Bitsgap, notes that the halving will lead to higher difficulty and lower block mining speeds, reducing inflation and naturally driving up the price of BTC, as seen in the market after previous halvings.

“The upcoming Bitcoin halving could lead to a rapid price increase, and by the end of the year, we may see BTC around $80,000. Several factors will contribute to the asset’s rise:

• overflow of investments from the stock market to the crypto market;
• slowdown of BTC sell-offs by miners;
• activity of institutional and corporate investors who are already replenishing their BTC reserves in anticipation of imminent growth.

Nevertheless, a negative scenario can’t be ruled out, leading to massive sell-offs of BTC immediately after the halving. In this case, the coin’s price could drop to $55,000-$60,000 and remain at this level throughout the summer, up to September-October of this year,” summarizes the expert.

Approval of Spot ETFs as Factor Influencing Cryptocurrency Market

Daniel Kennedy, Director at Mercurity Fintech Holding, points out that spot Bitcoin ETFs have provided a stable influx of institutional investments — currently, their share accounts for more than 4% of the total market (over 850,000 out of 21 million BTC). This process also contributes to the overall growth of investor trust in Bitcoin.

“The approval of spot Ethereum ETFs will also signal the general recognition of the altcoin market by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, and other products are likely to follow, including those representing second and even third-tier blockchain networks. This situation can be called a tailwind for the crypto sector.

Moreover, Bitcoin is now regulated through ETFs, albeit weakly. Through the same channels, it has gained long-awaited recognition as an asset by the SEC. While unlikely in April, if a real regulatory framework for digital assets emerges in 2024, it’ll significantly impact the crypto markets, almost certainly for the better,” Daniel shares.

Prospects for Altcoin Market in Near Future

Max Kalmykov, CEO of Bitsgap, notes that the price of ETH continues to rise mainly on expectations of the SEC’s approval of spot Ethereum ETFs. The regulator’s meeting on the matter is scheduled for the second half of May — that’s when the question of possible approval of traded funds will be raised, leading to stronger investment flow from stock markets to the crypto market.

“In addition, the rise in Bitcoin, which will be caused by another halving, will also affect the altcoin market, leading to an increase in the price of ETH. I’m inclined to assume that in April, ETH will reach $3,800-$4,000, and by the end of the year the price may hit $4,200-$4,500,” predicts Max.

The expert points out that Bitcoin’s halving, updates to the Ethereum blockchain, the eCash halving, and several other events will undoubtedly impact the top altcoins. The focus will remain on the token SOL. The project team is putting in enormous efforts to develop the project. Today, SOL is among the top 3 altcoins by market cap, which is certainly a huge breakthrough and achievement for the project.

“We should also expect active growth in the price of such altcoins as DOT, TON, and MATIK, which have strong community support and actively develop their own blockchains. The price of some meme coins, like PEPE, DOGE, and SHIB, will also rise. Speculators will push the price up by creating artificial demand for these coins,” Max believes.

“The altcoin market directly depends on Bitcoin’s price movements and community activity. Since BTC has entered a correction phase, it’s likely that the top altcoins will also lose in price in March-April. But the decline will be short-lived. By May, the price of some coins may set new records. Market participants should keep an eye on SOL, DOT, and TON tokens and a number of other assets that have strong support from the issuer and the community.

Top meme coins such as DOGE, SHIB, and PEPE are also worth paying attention to. They may also grow amid a general bullish trend and pressure from speculators immediately after the halving,” shared her forecast Marina Trofimova, CMO of 1ex Trading Board.

Vladimir Kochenov, CEO of VAK MARKETING, says that the altcoin market looks promising in 2024. He believes that fundamental analysis is more effective in predicting the crypto market than technical analysis.

Among the key factors that will influence the rise of altcoins in the foreseeable future, the development of proprietary technological solutions and cooperation with IT giants stand out.

“A good example is the Solana project. It’s a blockchain platform known for its speed and scalability. This already sets SOL apart from other assets. Moreover, the euro-pegged EUROe stablecoin was based on Solana, simplifying access to the crypto market for EU residents. The project team is constantly cooperating with large companies like Google and Amazon, and new projects based on Solana’s technologies are being created. The huge capitalization of SOL also plays a role. All this contributes to the positive news background and influences the favorable market dynamics of this altcoin,” Vladimir shares his opinion.

What Global Factors Will Impact Crypto Market in April 2024?

Daniel Kennedy, Director at Mercurity Fintech Holding, said:

“In larger markets, 2024 can be characterized by two words: government entities. Firstly, the Fed. Interest rates have been raised 11 times, reaching the highest level in over 40 years. The market anxiously awaited further actions from the Fed. However, the measures taken successfully slowed inflation from 9.4% to 3.4%, and it seems to be relatively under control for the time being.

According to a report from Kobeissi Letter, the only thing experiencing higher percentage growth than the price of BTC is money printing. According to their analysis, there was $4 trillion in circulation in 2020, and now there’s $19 trillion, representing a 375% increase in just three years. Meanwhile, since the lows of November 2022, Bitcoin has only risen by 320%.

The Fed remains in the spotlight as an interest rate cut is expected in 2024. This could have a wider implication for domestic and global markets and potentially increase overall market volatility. Many experts and analysts are talking about equal chances of a “hard” and “soft” landing. A recession in the U.S. will undoubtedly cause turmoil in the cryptocurrency markets and affect the Web3 sector as a whole, as it’s a growing segment sensitive to difficult market conditions. Many, if not most, Web3 companies are still in the development stage and not yet profitable, so they’ll be the first investments to be sold off during a market downturn.

Secondly, the SEC, another U.S. government agency, continues to play an important supporting role in influencing the crypto markets due to its cautious and often skeptical approach to this asset class. Regulation should logically follow ETF approval, as it’s difficult to regulate something that remains uncertain. It’s reasonable to expect at least a regulatory framework to emerge in the next year(s), but it’s hard to say when that will happen. If cryptocurrencies are generally recognized as assets in 2024, or even recognized through regulation, or further hints of recognition (such as the approval of subsequent ETF products, including funds based on L2 and L3 network altcoins), the markets are almost certainly to be affected.”

Among other factors that will influence the digital asset market is the trial of Changpeng Zhao, which will take place at the end of April. This is highlighted by Marina Trofimova, CMO of 1ex Trading Board. She also believes that further development of the regulatory framework in Europe will have a significant impact on the crypto market. In particular, consultations on the development and implementation of MiCA (Markets in Crypto-Assets) regulations, which will define the criteria and conditions for the operation of crypto companies in the EU, should be finalized in Q1.

In addition to the aforementioned factors, Max Kalmykov, CEO of Bitsgap, noted that April will see several major industry events that bring together a significant part of crypto investors, traders, enthusiasts, and everyone involved in the Web3 industry. These include the large-scale NYC.NFT conference, Paris Blockchain Week, Hong Kong Web3 Festival 2024, and many others. Holding big industry events accelerates crypto adoption worldwide and popularizes Web3 technologies in society.

Sascha Grumbach, Founder and CEO of Green Mining DAO, believes that besides ETFs and halving, there are many other factors that can influence the quotes of digital assets. Among them are:

1. Economic indicators such as GDP growth, inflation rate, and employment level also have a significant impact on asset prices as they reflect the overall state of the economy.
2. Monetary policy of central banks, such as changes in interest rates and quantitative easing measures, can affect asset prices by influencing borrowing costs and liquidity in financial markets.
3. Geopolitical events such as trade tensions, conflicts, and changes in regulatory frameworks can introduce uncertainty and volatility into the market, affecting asset prices in different sectors.

In addition to the mentioned factors, the cryptocurrency market and the Web3 industry can also be greatly influenced by:

• technological progress;
• development of regulatory frameworks; 
• security breaches and hacks; 
• changes in consumer behavior; 
• development of financial infrastructure, etc.

Furthermore, investor sentiment towards risky assets and new technologies can significantly influence investment flows into cryptocurrencies and related enterprises, summarizes the expert.