It’s important to note that forecasts were compiled between June 23 and June 27, 2023, so the figures in the material refer to that period.
Note: The information appearing here is for informational purposes only and does not contain investment advice or recommendations. All financial management decisions should be made based on your own analysis and consultations with professionals.
Some Market Participants Expect Growth in July
Kirill Ostrovsky, a manager with 20 years of experience in the largest IT and FinTech companies, predicts the cryptocurrency market’s and Bitcoin’s growth. He notes that the cryptocurrency market rose nearly 10% last week, adding about $120 billion to its market capitalization. Bitcoin’s market dominance has also increased, rising from 49.6% to 51.8%, its highest level since April 2021.
“One of the main factors contributing to the growth is the increasing interest from U.S. financial institutions in cryptocurrencies. The most notable development was the filing of a Bitcoin ETF from BlackRock, the world’s largest asset management company. Despite the ongoing regulatory uncertainty, institutional investments are returning to the cryptocurrency markets, especially through Bitcoin,” Kirill concludes.
Alexander Visotsky, Founder of the business management platform Tonnus, also notes the growth of Bitcoin price during the last week by 14%, reaching $30,500. According to the expert, this happened because of two main events:
- The U.S. Federal Reserve took a break from raising interest rates.
- Major investment funds have applied to open Bitcoin ETFs.
“The Fed has been raising rates since last year to deal with inflation. Because of that, a lot of money went into safer savings instruments, such as bonds, compared to cryptocurrencies. But now that the Fed has paused, capital is flowing back into Bitcoin, and BTC’s price has increased. Also, investment funds have applied to create Bitcoin ETFs. ETFs are exchange-traded funds that make investing easier for regular people. If these applications are approved, more money will be invested in Bitcoin and its price will go even higher,” the expert explains.
Alexander also mentions the possible risks associated with the Fed’s already-announced plans to raise the rate again in July, which could reduce the value of Bitcoin. In addition, U.S. regulators continue to put pressure on cryptocurrency exchanges, and this process may complicate the situation for the first cryptocurrency. As a result, while Bitcoin’s value is rising, it is difficult to predict July accurately. Much will depend on the Fed’s actions and regulators’ decisions on ETFs and crypto exchanges.
Some Experts Are Not So Optimistic about the Crypto Market in July
Ruslan Zakharkin, a crypto investor and co-founder of Legat Business Congress, predicts that a considerable growth of BTC and altcoins is not expected. In his opinion, the “overheated” crypto market in 2021 has not “cooled down” yet, and Bitcoin halving is not expected until 2024, so there are no visible prerequisites for significant growth.
“July 2023 may only give the crypto market some flashes on Bitcoin and residual phenomena on several altcoins, mostly from the top 20 by capitalization, and nothing more. It is summer, and in summer, there is traditionally a huge outflow of funds from cryptocurrency assets and many investment companies because people fix their profits and make cash withdrawals into their national currencies. In summer, one wants to rest, not trade,” Ruslan shares his opinion.
In addition, in his opinion, the global information background and international conflicts play an important role in the sideways movement of the market. The current situation harms almost all markets: commodity, currency, stock, and cryptocurrency markets among others.
“The second half of June turned out to be quite successful for the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin came close to the key resistance level of $30,000. And on June 22, it even managed to overcome it briefly. I’m still betting on growth up to $35,000 if the news background will remain good throughout the month,” shares opinion Vlad Krylov, Chief Editor of Crypto.ru.
He also notes that Proof-of-Work cryptocurrencies look much better in the light of the SEC actions because some native tokens, like SOL, are officially included by the regulator in the list of securities. Such decisions create pressure not only on exchanges but also on communities. Therefore, large investors are more likely to favor BTC, which has been tested for years, while Proof-of-Stake-based networks could suffer from further actions by the regulator.
Forecast from Bitget’s CEO
A comprehensive short-term analysis of the cryptocurrency market, and Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Binance Coin in particular, was provided to CP Media by Gracy Chen, CEO of cryptocurrency exchange Bitget. The following is her forecast, with minor stylistic changes by CP Media’s editorial staff.
Major Factors Affecting Bitcoin
The Federal Reserve plans to raise interest rates in July. Despite hawkish comments released by the Federal Reserve in June indicating the likelihood of two more rate hikes in the second half of the year, the prevailing opinion among market participants is that the statements are an attempt by the Fed to manage expectations of an interest rate cut.
Hence, the expectation of additional rate hikes in July is considered a key factor affecting the BTC price in the second half of the year. In addition, recent news about asset management giants such as BlackRock, WisdomTree, and Invesco applying for a BTC ETF catalyzed the BTC price, pushing it above $30,000. At the same time, the launch of the Wall Street-backed digital asset platform, EDX, is gradually easing the level of tension in the market following SEC allegations against Binance and Coinbase.
Bitcoin Trend Forecast for July
Based on the above factors, BTC may test a significant resistance level of $34,000 to $35,000 in July. Keeping an eye on the strength of support around $30,000 and $31,000 is critical. If BTC remains stable at $31,000, especially given positive news such as the U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged in July, the short-term target range could be $32,000 to $33,000. In the medium term, there could be a further test of the $34,000 level, followed by a pullback to maintain the range move.
However, if BTC fails to hold at the $31,000 or $30,000 level, there is a high probability of fluctuations in the $29,000 to $31,000 range, paving the way for a potential new high. If BTC falls below $29,000, the short-term risk increases, disrupting the uptrend and leading to broader swings in the $26,000 to $30,000 range.
Ethereum Staking Impact and Trend Forecast for July
ETH staking on the network currently totals 19.89 million ETH with a rate of 16.53% and an annual return of 4.2%. Staking continues to attract funds, resulting in a steady increase in betting volume. ETH’s annual deflation rate is −0.25% and has remained stable recently. The cooling of hot sectors of the market has led to a decline in network activity, contributing to the lack of rapid growth. However, it is expected that once altcoin activity picks up, there will be additional opportunities for ETH deflation to improve. From a fundamental point of view, ETH shows relatively high profitability.
Ethereum trend forecast for July: in terms of the exchange rate, ETH has shown relative weakness compared to BTC, as BTC’s market share is rapidly increasing. However, in the long term, ETH has higher profitability. Nevertheless, demand for ETH depends primarily on the value of altcoins, particularly meme coins, as well as the profitability of various market sectors. Thus, a conservative estimate for July suggests that ETH will fluctuate between $1,700 and $1,950. If BTC successfully passes the $31,000 mark, it is expected to trigger a wave of trends in the altcoin sector, which could lead to ETH trying to overcome the previous resistance level of around $2,141.
Binance Coin Trend Forecast for July
The platform has faced significant changes since the SEC allegations against Binance, including its departure from the Dutch market and ongoing investigations in France. Several European countries are cooperating with the SEC in investigating Binance’s operations. On June 17, Binance reached a preliminary agreement with the SEC outlining plans to keep all U.S. customer funds and wallet keys within the country.
While the situation remains under scrutiny, it is currently within manageable limits. In addition, Binance recently announced the launch of opBNB, a Level 2 test network built on Op Stack. This introduction marks a significant increase in transaction processing speeds (TPS) and lower fees, reinforcing user expectations for the BNB Chain and contributing to BNB’s value.
BNB trend forecast for July: BNB price dynamics are expected to be closely tied to the course of the litigation between the SEC and Binance. Based on the experience of XRP, Kraken, and other cases, we can foresee that this litigation could stretch out for a significant period of time. Consequently, BNB will likely face significant swings in the $230 to $280 range in July. If BTC crosses the $31,000 threshold, BNB will have the opportunity to challenge a strong resistance level in the $290 to $300 range.