October is known as “uptober” in the English-speaking part of the global network as it’s statistically one of the most profitable months for the cryptocurrency market. This can be clearly seen in the statistics provided by CoinGlass. Yet, October 2023 lacks the usual optimism among experts since many factors point to the prospects of a sideways movement.
Note: The information presented here is for informational purposes only and does not contain investment advice or recommendations. All financial management decisions should be made based on your own analysis and consultations with professionals.
Crypto Market Forecasts for October 2023
“October might be as boring as September for most cryptocurrencies. The Fed Chair’s verbal intervention, threatening to raise the rate again in 2023, is the main pressure on the market. The tightening of monetary policy has already led to the accelerated reduction of crypto exchanges’ reserve, which has fallen by 26% to 2 million BTC since early 2022. Volatility and trading volume indicators are also now at annual lows,” reports Dmitry Noskov, Expert at StormGain.
Dmitry also highlights the growing number of factors that can provoke unexpected price fluctuations. Among them are the approval of spot BTC ETFs, to which the market may react positively, or stronger regulatory enforcement that is likely to negatively affect market sentiment. And it’s worth noting that Gary Gensler, Chair of the SEC, has already warned the community of increased activity in this area.
“Among the anticipated developments, it’s worth noting the potential launch of ETH futures ETFs in the U.S. October marks the deadline for one of the filings. In case of a positive outcome, Ethereum is likely to overtake Bitcoin in the dynamics of the month’s results,” adds Dmitry Noskov.
Tough Environment in the Cryptocurrency Market
“October will be a challenging month for the crypto market. This is due to the strict monetary policy of the world’s central banks. The U.S. Federal Reserve has made it clear it will stick to its current policy. Fed Chair Jerome Powell even hinted at another possible increase in the key interest rate before the end of the year. Powell also announced a reduction in the Fed’s balance sheet, which will cause the U.S. stock market to go down. This, in turn, will put pressure on the cryptocurrency market that correlates with the stock market,” notes Egor Mitskevich, Author for the Cryptonisation portal.
The news from the Fed has already triggered a slight decline in BTC’s rate and a drop in asset quotes in other financial markets. Egor believes that October will be a challenging month, and the market will need time to acclimate to the new conditions.
Crypto Market Shows No Signs of Growth
Alexander Visotsky, Co-Founder of Business Booster, says that over the past two months, the cryptocurrency sector hasn’t shown any signs of active growth. In contrast, the U.S. dollar is still strengthening. This may indicate the persistence of unfavorable dynamics in the crypto market. The expert also states the growing pressure of regulatory bodies on large crypto companies.
“As for Bitcoin, the forecast for October is as follows: its growth is expected at the beginning and end of the month. From October 9 to 18, the cryptocurrency will fall in value. BTC will reach its peak at $29,012, and its cheapest price will be on October 18. On this day, it’ll hit $23,043. By the end of October, the price of BTC will reach $27,559. Among the factors that will affect the rate are statements from major investors and recent data on the level of demand,” Alexander shared his predictions based on technical analysis.
Uptober: A Cheerful Start and Growing Anxiety
Evgeny Tarasov, Head of Content at CP Media, notes the sudden surge in the prices of BTC and ETH during October 1. The daily growth reached 5% momentarily. Nothing but traders’ shared optimism can explain this behavior of the assets. One could say that market participants “marked the beginning of uptober” by closing short positions worth more than $88 million over the past 24 hours as of 16:00 (GMT+3), October 2. But the optimism waned relatively quickly and the growth turned to a slight decline on October 2.
“In general, there are no fundamental factors that can have a guaranteed impact on market optimism. Besides the dollar strengthening, the market is exposed to the record losses from hacker attacks, recorded in September. According to CertiK, they amounted to about $329.8 million,” notes Evgeny.
The expert believes that another factor that indirectly influenced market strengthening was the Senate approval of the bill on temporary funding of the U.S. government. But this decision only postponed the main issue, so that the tension on this matter will return and grow by mid-October. There’s no doubt that U.S. politicians will eventually agree on funding, just as there’ll be behind-the-scenes negotiations until the last moment, so the markets will be under a lot of pressure in late October and the first half of November. The cryptocurrency market will feel it first, especially if uptober fails to live up to the expectations.