Expectations vs. Reality: Matching Last Year’s Projections with Actual Outcomes

Expert forecasting is a popular form of analysis that allows industry professionals to showcase their expertise by predicting developments based on trends, data, and insights. These projections provide market participants and other stakeholders with a glimpse into potential industry scenarios for a defined future period. The longer the time frame, the less reliable the forecast. By nature, predictions can’t guarantee absolute accuracy and are often accompanied by disclaimers, such as the one below.

But what happens when we evaluate the accuracy of past predictions? That’s exactly what CP Media set out to do, using last year’s forecasts about the crypto market and Web3 as a baseline.

Increased Integration of Cryptocurrencies into Traditional Finance

Key factors that have affected the global crypto market: 

1. The Bitcoin halving event.
2. Greater institutional adoption of Bitcoin.
3. Economic policies and cryptocurrency regulations in the U.S.

At the start of 2024, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs, a pivotal development that boosted institutional adoption of the leading cryptocurrency. By the end of the year, over 5.6% of the total circulating BTC supply was held by spot Bitcoin ETFs, a figure that continued to grow. Mid-year, a similar approval for Ethereum ETFs further strengthened the trend of institutional adoption by traditional finance (TradFi) organizations.

In addition to local regulatory actions, Bitcoin was significantly influenced by the Federal Reserve’s policies and the broader political landscape. For example, the overall trend in Bitcoin’s four-year halving cycle was amplified during the U.S. presidential elections. Donald Trump, during his campaign, highlighted cryptocurrency adoption and, after winning the election, took tangible steps to reduce legal uncertainties in this sector. As a result, Bitcoin’s value reached new all-time highs over ten times in November and December 2024, surpassing $108,000 at one point and driving the total crypto market capitalization to nearly $4 trillion.

The trend of BTC’s price growth and its integration into the traditional financial system, along with other cryptocurrencies, is clearly continuing.

Tokenization: Major Web3 Trend in 2024

As predicted, tokenization of real-world assets (RWA) emerged as one of the key technological trends of the year. CP Media covered no fewer than 80 major events in this sector throughout the year, with many smaller-scale developments also taking place.

Key trends in tokenization in 2024: 

• active adoption of tokenization in capital markets, securities, lending, and other segments of the global financial market;
• tokenization of financial assets for central bank digital currency (CBDC) operations;
• optimization of cross-border trade using tokenized assets;
• leveraging RWAs to modernize traditional markets, such as real estate;
• development of tokenization in niche commodity markets like uranium, diamonds, gold, and more.

By late December 2024, the total market for tokenized assets exceeded $15 billion, and analysts predict it has the potential for 50x growth by 2030.

It’s important to note that the applications of tokenization extend far beyond the areas mentioned above. So this provides a strong basis for believing that tokenization will remain one of the leading Web3 trends in 2025, further expanding the integration of decentralized technologies with the traditional financial system.

Growth of Stablecoin Market and Its Ecosystem

The trends in the stablecoin sector were also accurately forecasted. By the end of December 2024, the market cap of stablecoins hit a new ATH, surpassing $210 billion, compared to $136 billion at the beginning of the year. According to Visa, the adjusted total transaction volume using stablecoins over the past 12 months exceeded $5.6 trillion, with 207 million unique active addresses utilizing stablecoins during this period.

Moreover, there’s a direct correlation between the growth of stablecoin market capitalization and the overall crypto market expansion, as highlighted by Paolo Ardoino, CEO of Tether, in early December. However, the sector’s overall growth has also been driven by other significant factors, including:

• local changes in digital asset regulation;
• expanded use of stablecoins in national and cross-border payment systems;
• development of global infrastructure projects based on stablecoins;
• the launch of new regulated stablecoins pegged to national currencies.

For more details on the key events that influenced the development of the stablecoin sector and its ecosystem, visit the relevant section on the CoinsPaid Media website.

Development of FinTech Products Based on Web3 Technologies

The growth of innovative financial products using decentralized technologies was another trend accurately predicted at the beginning of the year. This development is directly tied to the previous two trends, as tokenization and stablecoins form the foundation of many FinTech solutions that emerged in 2024.

Major trends in this sphere are:

• development of crypto-based payment solutions;
• increased availability and variety of cryptocurrency cards;
• expanded use of crypto payments in traditional markets;
• growth of cross-border B2B payment solutions.

To summarize, almost all the forecasts made at the beginning of the year proved accurate. It’s important to note that this article focused on only the key areas related to the widespread adoption of cryptocurrencies and related solutions. Not all predictions from the past year were analyzed in detail here.