We’ve been witnessing a flat market for a few months now. Bitcoin has been making small leaps upward but then invariably returns to its previous values. In September, we hoped that Ethereum’s transition to PoS would give a serious boost, yet it didn’t help the second cryptocurrency to grow in price significantly. Current quotations are much lower than the September highs,” Vlad Krylov, Chief Editor of crypto.ru, shares his opinion.
Vlad believes that under current conditions, altcoins, especially those that have recently made their way into the top 30, aren’t the most promising assets to invest in. “Digital gold” remains the safest crypto-asset for investment.
“Bitcoin is still the main market driver, but it can go down and drag other coins with it. However, if it falls, it has a better chance of returning to previous quotes,” the expert summarizes. In the short term, he sees no serious prerequisites for growth. In fact, major exchanges keep laying off employees to prepare for a prolonged crypto winter.
Valentin Alekseev, Business Analyst at Crypton Studio, says that the crypto winter atmosphere favors active development and new technological solutions: “The bearish crypto market gives blockchain projects a chance to concentrate on development and not chase the hype. During the market downturn, low-quality one-day projects leave the market. Only fundamental initiatives aimed at long-term work remain in operation. Historically, the crypto winter is the calmest and most fruitful time for those willing to conquer new heights in the blockchain industry during the next bull rally.”
Vladislav Skvortsov, CEO of V3 Games, thinks that the crypto market will receive new capital and cash injections in the coming month: “Closer to the end of the fiscal year, the crypto market is likely to receive a fairly substantial amount of money. Venture capital funds will be more willing to allocate and execute their own budgets before the current fiscal period ends. Meanwhile, Bitcoin and fundamental altcoins will respond with notable increases ahead of Thanksgiving and Christmas, a historical pattern common to both traditional and crypto markets.”
Ivona Gutovich, COO at Green Crypto Processing, is optimistic about the short-term prospects for the crypto market: “BTC continues its flat tendency. To understand further movement, it should go either to the upper or lower border of the channel. If it goes to the upper boundary, we can expect further upward movement with the first target of $29,800.”
Alexander Visotsky, Founder of the EdTech company Visotsky Inc and the IT business management platform Tonnus, gave a more restrained forecast, though one which echoes previous comments. He assumes that in the long term, BTC and ETH have preconditions for growth. “Even though Bitcoin and Ethereum showed an increase in prices and trading volumes at the end of October, the situation remains the same as in the past two months. There’s hope for recovery, but the risks are still high. Many indicators show it. Nevertheless, I predict growth opportunities for the major cryptocurrencies in November, which is a long-term prospect. For example, BTC is now in a rising trend, something it hasn’t experienced since this March. I think it’ll grow more in November,” the entrepreneur sums up optimistically.
Vladimir Malyshev, CEO of Forly Capital, is also relatively optimistic about short-term prospects for the cryptocurrency market: “In November, the main cryptocurrencies will grow smoothly if no new shocks happen. Prerequisites for this include the unchanged U.S. unemployment rate, despite some deterioration in absolute values, as well as a hint from the Fed’s head about a possible slowdown in the refinancing rate.”
Vladimir believes that at the same time, a strong dollar can hold back the growth of cryptocurrency: “Investors, worried about a potential global economic slump, have sought a safe haven in the dollar throughout 2022, causing its value to rise against most of the world’s currencies. Despite hints of a loosening of the Fed’s hawkish policies, the dollar is far from weakening.”
The expert points out that crypto market growth could be catalyzed by the Republican party’s victory in the U.S. midterm elections since Republicans support digital assets and oppose their regulation.
“Not only October marked a pause in the current bear market we’re going through, but it offered quite a lot of surprises. For example, the Dow Jones Industrial Average index posted its best monthly performance in 48 years, and the crypto market experienced some relief as well. Will this rebound be sustainable, or was it just a natural bounce before resuming the current downtrend?” says CoinsPaid Trader Vince Pellizzari.
“The macro picture is the best place to look to find clues for a future market direction,” claims Vince. “I see a long list of relatively high-risk factors weighing on the market versus speculation about positive drivers like a possible pivot from the Fed, a relief of the tensions around the conflict in Ukraine, and so on. This whole balance of risk is leaning towards more downside potential, at least in the short run,” the expert states.
Vince also shares his opinion about Bitcoin: “Bitcoin managed to come back and trade above the psychological level of $20,000, which is watched by most of the traders. If we start losing this level again, there will be reasons for concern. However, the real level to keep under the radar is $18,000. If it breaks, it could create some panic and a sudden move to the $10,000-$12,000 zone. The optimistic scenario would be that BTC stays above $20,000 and consolidates around this price.”
“Crypto didn’t just slump. It collapsed, squeezing weak investors out of the market. While they were dumping assets at unprofitable prices, freeing up funds for household spending, whales were buying it all at ideal prices. So, when will it all come to a climax? When will the final scene of the prolonged bearish trend happen already?” asks Olga Rudenko, Crypto Blogger. “We focus on BTC because it accounts for 40% of the entire crypto market cap. Ki Young Ju, one of the leading BTC analysts, writes that the average amount of BTC deposits on derivatives exchanges has increased to the highest values in the last five years. Whales are now putting money into exchanges for futures trading. This indicates that volatility is about to begin.”
According to Olga, the key factors putting pressure on the crypto market are rising unemployment and a slowing economy in the run-up to the U.S. midterm elections. Given this situation, it’s better for the authorities to improve the investment climate, which is facilitated by the Fed’s key rate increase. The markets respond to it with growth. At the same time, the cryptocurrency market is easily manipulated, and whales are clearly preparing to put pressure on it. In these circumstances, BTC may rise to $25,000 for a short period and then fall even further. Something similar already happened in 2018, when Bitcoin lost over 85% of its value during the year. Recall that the current fall in the price of the first cryptocurrency from its maximum values has already reached 74%.
UPD: Note! Expert opinions were gathered just a few days before FTX’s crisis emerged in full force. Therefore, the situation assessment and forecasts are provided beyond this context.
