Is it possible to start selling oil and gas for BTC? How realistic is this scenario? Which countries could be interested in buying oil and gas on such terms? In this article, I’ll try to give answers to these questions below. 
Can We Start Selling Oil and Gas for BTC?

In my opinion, calculations in BTC don’t seem to be possible due to the extremely high risks surrounding it, at least with increased volatility of the exchange rate and low liquidity. No large business, not to mention states, will make major payments in a cryptocurrency, the origin of which is still a mystery. This is obvious. We don’t even take into account the fact that cryptocurrency can easily fluctuate by 15% within a single day.

States like El Salvador, where BTC is used to attract investors to the country are not considered. The state’s reserves amount to about 1,800 coins or $81 million. 

In other words, “those are rookie numbers in this racket,” as Matthew McConaughey’s character said in his epic monologue from The Wolf of Wall Street.

Let’s assume that a decision has been made. Now it’s just a matter of where to find enough BTC and how to get it with minimal losses. Germany alone paid Russia about €40 billion for oil, gas, and coal in 2021. Such volumes will be extremely problematic to find, especially considering the fact that, according to the most optimistic calculations, about 20% is lost forever, and long-term investors keep about 13 million more coins. In such an environment of limited liquidity, finding enough coins for an effective commodity exchange is beyond the realm of possibility. And any large purchases will inevitably have a serious impact on the rate.

So, conversations about settlements in BTC between countries sound exactly the same as saying that Bitcoin is a digital analog of gold while somehow correlating with risky assets like US tech stocks. Enthusiasts can look at a chart on Bill.com, a loss-making and most distant company from digital currencies, and compare price movements from November 2021 to start seeing things realistically. In the case of BTC exchanges, the situation seems similar: it’s enough to get acquainted with the main figures on the market, after which all conversations surrounding the subject will be viewed skeptically.

The only way to use digital assets for exchange is to choose crypto analogs of fiat, like stablecoins. However, it’s not all that simple. The volatility is no longer an issue, but the challenge will be to create your own analog of USDT and USDC, as third-party issuers like Tether can always freeze wallets or mark them as undesirable. Creating your own digital dollar also makes no sense because the United States will simply impose tough sanctions on counterparties, which, unlike Russia, still have something to lose. Therefore, it turns out that the digital ruble may be the way out, but even here, we may face a lack of liquidity, as the Russian currency itself is not popular, and foreign partners will have to get it somewhere first.

Aaron Chomsky, Head of Investment Department, ICB Fund.

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