Long-term financial forecasts are a mug’s play given the current state of the world economy and global political unrest. In this context, crypto market forecasts make even less sense, as many digital assets are highly volatile, unpredictable, and speculative in nature. On the other hand, why not outline the main trends and key events of the coming year that can be predicted? In order to create an unbiased picture, CP Media sought comments from experts who gladly shared their predictions for the crypto market in 2024.
Note: The information presented here is for informational purposes only and does not contain investment advice or call to action!
Market Participants Are Optimistic for 2024
Investors are optimistic about the situation in the crypto market in 2024. Anton Toroptsev, Regional Director of CommEX, attributes this to the hope for a bull cycle before and after Bitcoin’s halving. The halving is scheduled for the spring. Building on the effects of previous halvings, its full impact will be felt within 12 months. Thus, investors anticipate a rapid rise in BTC in H2 2024.
Anton points out that 2024 is full of other positive events for cryptocurrencies. Market participants, both in the crypto and stock markets, expect the U.S. Fed to begin cutting interest rates amid a slowdown in inflation to the 2% target. This will entail lower yields on Treasury securities and capital flows into riskier assets such as stocks or cryptocurrencies. Meanwhile, the risks of recession or stagflation (high inflation and low economic growth) persist, which will further stimulate investors to look for protective instruments to preserve the value of assets. These could be gold or cryptocurrencies, which, although characterized by high risk, demonstrates potentially high returns.
“The expected increase in BTC will be a driving force for the entire crypto market, pulling altcoin prices with it. Ethereum also offers hope for growth, as the platform remains the most popular for running dApps. With the growth of the crypto market, some investors will use DeFi protocols to maximize their income,” concludes Anton Toroptsev.
Anton Shustikov, CEO of cybersecurity company CakesCats, shared a similar opinion. He noted that the cryptocurrency community’s growth expectations are related to the active discussion of Bitcoin ETF launch. Among the negative factors that will affect the market situation in 2024, the expert singles out a significant decrease in the volume of investments in crypto projects at early stages, which has been observed over the past six months, and a staffing crisis due to oversaturation and shrinking market needs.
Key Factors of Change in the Crypto Market in 2024
According to Daniel Kennedy, Director of Mecurity Fintech Holding, three events will influence the crypto market in 2024, of which the first is certain, the second is likely, and the third is uncertain but possible:
- The certain event is the halving of the Bitcoin network, scheduled for April 2024. It hasn’t happened yet, but the price of BTC has already risen 165.7% in just over a year, and the trend will probably continue.
- The likely event is the SEC approving applications to issue spot Bitcoin ETFs by some of the largest asset management companies in H1 2024. This will further legitimize cryptocurrency as a reputable asset class and promise large capital inflows into the crypto market.
- The uncertain but possible event that will substantially impact the markets is whether a legal framework for crypto market regulation will be developed and implemented in the U.S. in 2024.
“The introduction of at least a system of rules and regulations related to crypto may coincide with the approval of ETFs, as it proves quite difficult to regulate something that has no clear official definition. The first round of regulation is likely to be focused specifically on Bitcoin as it’s the largest cryptocurrency by market cap, the most recognized in traditional markets, and the most clearly defined by regulators as a commodity and digital savings vehicle similar to gold,” Daniel shares his expectations.
Ronen Cojocaru, CEO of FinTech platform 8081, believes that the future of the cryptocurrency market will be determined by several crucial factors. The main one is the widespread adoption of cryptocurrencies within institutional investments.
“Currently, an average retail investor is still hesitant to venture into crypto investments. Adoption by large institutions is a crucial step to encourage retail participation. And this is already happening. A growing number of financial corporations are integrating cryptocurrencies into their transactional systems or investing in them. This shift is fueled by the growing recognition of crypto as a legitimate asset class,” Ronen comments on the situation.
The expert says the mass adoption of cryptocurrencies largely depends on the regulatory framework shaped by governments. Regulatory clarity and supportive policies can accelerate this adoption, while strict or ambiguous rules can hinder it. Overcoming regulatory challenges is thus essential to realizing the full potential of crypto adoption.
“A significant increase in global adoption of Web3 technologies should be expected, especially by institutions introducing new financial instruments and ancillary apps. Moreover, an increasing number of businesses across industries are anticipated to adopt blockchain for a variety of purposes, including supply chain management, medical records maintenance, and intellectual property protection.
As the potential of the Web3 sphere becomes more evident, there will be a surge in investment from VCs and institutional investors, further fueling innovation. Throughout most of 2023, venture capitalists behaved cautiously, primarily funding existing projects and showing less interest in new startups. However, a major shift is expected in early 2024, with more investment in new businesses,” summarizes Ronen Cojocaru.
In the short term, according to Ronen, we should expect technology and financial companies, particularly in the FinTech sector, to play a more prominent role in the adoption of cryptocurrencies. These organizations are already creating cutting-edge, user-friendly solutions that dispel the mysterious halo formed around blockchain and cryptocurrencies. Such innovations can bridge the gap between complex crypto technologies and the general public, simplifying interactions and improving understanding.
Lobbying and Public Demands
Christopher Smithmyer, Co-Founder and CEO of Black Wallet Limited, thinks that the development of the crypto market in 2024 will be driven by the fact that industry representatives have already spent almost $100 million on lobbying for crypto initiatives and the adoption of liberal legislation in the U.S. aimed at supporting the digital asset market.
Among other factors that will influence the development of the crypto market, Christopher emphasizes the following demands of society:
- Globalization. A request to move beyond the archaic nation-state model with the replacement of national loyalty with group loyalty.
- Privacy. People have a right to privacy of their personal information, including financial data. In turn, the government should be able to prevent the financing of terrorism and other criminal activities, but today, due to Web3, it’s possible to do this without disclosing personal info and total surveillance of the entire population.
- Community. Society needs the community to work together to enable market growth.
Technological Innovation Amidst Mass Adoption
Ibrahim Taha, CIO at Roowaad Inc, believes that the crypto market in 2024 will probably keep evolving with increased institutional participation and a clearer regulatory framework. The expert says the main factors influencing the market development could be the integration of crypto into traditional finance, new blockchain developments, and greater focus on security and regulatory compliance.
“It’s likely that in 2024, we’ll see the emergence of new Web3 apps with a focus on user-friendliness adopting decentralized protocols, potentially leading to wider implementation. Key changes may also include a greater emphasis on privacy, digital sovereignty, and interoperability between different blockchain ecosystems,” shares Ibrahim.
The expert feels that the crypto landscape in 2024 will be defined by a combination of tech innovation and the drive for mass adoption. Market participants will witness the emergence of a Web3 ecosystem with an increased level of trustworthiness, better prepared to integrate with the wider financial world.
The Economic Situation in the U.S. Is One of the Key Influencing Factors
Several experts noted a high level of dependence of the crypto market situation on the U.S. Fed’s key rate policy. Dmitry Noskov, Expert at StormGain, singled out the U.S. monetary policy as one of the main factors.
“If the regulator reduces the rate from the current level of 5.25-5.5% per annum in 2024, it’ll lower the attractiveness of dollar assets and investors will partially transfer their funds to crypto,” says Dmitry.
Another factor that will play an important role is the attitude of U.S. financial regulators to crypto companies. In 2023, there was a very high pressure on the segment from the U.S. authorities, in particular, on the world’s largest crypto exchange Binance. In this aspect, the SEC’s approval to register the first Bitcoin ETF in the U.S. could be an important positive signal for the market.
“Overall, the crypto market in 2024 has chances for growth. Bitcoin may rise above the psychological mark of $50,000 in January, and ETH may break through the $2,500 level. Halving, expected in April 2024, will be a major factor for BTC. About six months after this event, its market value traditionally rises sharply. As for ETH, it’ll be pulled upwards, following the first cryptocurrency. XRP, SOL, and ADA can also be expected to grow in 2024.
The segment that has significant growth potential in 2024 is the decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystem. Its TVL this year has already exceeded $370 million, a figure that has grown by over six times since the beginning of the year,” Dmitry Noskov shares his opinion.
Evgenia Myakotina, Trader at OphirTrade, also believes that monetary policy and regulation in the United States will be the main triggers for crypto market development in 2024. Besides, the market movement will be largely influenced by the presidential elections in the U.S. and Russia. The situation in these areas can lead to both positive and negative dynamics. Among the positive factors, Evgenia noted the probable freezing of the Ukrainian conflict and halving of the Bitcoin network; among the negative factors — the replacement of cryptocurrencies with CBDCs and further recession in the global economy.
CBDC Significance in the Context of the Crypto Market Situation
The development of central bank digital currencies (CBDC) will greatly influence the cryptocurrency market. Such an opinion was shared by Kristina Belle, Crypto Producer, Business and Investment Advisor. In her opinion, there’s a move from fiat and cashless money to crypto, with government agencies seeking to control the money supply and regulate the cryptocurrency market.
“Users started being prepared for the launch of CBDCs after the pandemic, saying that the virus could be transmitted through cash, so it was better to use non-cash payments. Then, there followed military conflicts in different countries, sanctions, problems with cross-border payments, and economic crisis around the world, which contributed to the depletion of the cash reserve. The CBDC is a great solution for the government to speed up remittances and settlements within and outside the country, reduce the cost of printing money supply and servicing cash settlements, facilitate the control of the monetary field, and help improve the world economy and international trade,” says Kristina.
At the same time, cryptocurrency was initially appealing due to its anonymity and decentralization in contrast to state-owned digital assets. Therefore, Kristina says that CBDC development will contribute to the popularization of cryptocurrencies, many of which remain largely decentralized and involve a high level of privacy.
Doug Van Soest, Co-Founder of SoCal Home Buyers, shared similar thoughts. He believes that in 2024, the crypto space will be ready for a transformation facilitated by the active adoption of central bank digital currencies. CBDCs will serve as conduits for mass adoption of cryptocurrencies and acceptance of digital assets by institutional investors. At the initial stages, there will be interaction between CBDCs and cryptocurrencies, but later, it’ll inevitably transform into competition, followed by tighter government regulation of the cryptocurrency market.
Major Growth Should Be Expected by Late 2024
If the growth, in general, raises no doubts, then experts differ in predicting its details. Yaroslav Ivanov, Chief Visionary Officer at ALTA, believes that the main growth is likely to occur closer to the end of 2024 or early 2025. The expert also notes that it’s most likely that:
- regulatory initiatives for the DeFi sector will evolve in the U.S;
- global CBDC adoption won’t happen in 2024, only test projects will be launched in some countries;
- there will be hype around projects that use artificial intelligence (AI) in the Web3 segment.
Yaroslav thinks that in 2024, the key conditions for the successful development of crypto projects will be large marketing budgets and generous token giveaways to attract new market participants.