Cryptocurrency Market Forecasts for March 2023

The cryptocurrency market is “frozen” in a horizontal movement, waiting for further changes. But what exactly should market participants expect? CP Media collected the opinions of industry experts and put them into one material to get a more or less unbiased picture of what’s going on.  

Short- & Mid-Term Forecasts for Bitcoin

Vince Pellizzari, Trader at CoinsPaid, notes that the “King of Crypto” started the year on a fairly optimistic note, despite the gloomy macroeconomic context marked by multiple rate hikes by major central banks and the growing risks of recession in 2023. 

“Not only BTC posted its second-best January within the last ten years with a close to 40% performance, but it managed to close another month in the green,” Vince reports. “Multiple bullish factors can explain such bullishness in the market, one being that we’re approaching the next halving. We’re approximately one year away from it, and every halving has been followed by a nearly tenfold price increase, so we can imagine that long-term players knowing about such a phenomenon are already positioning themselves, especially after such a strong sell-off in 2022.”

In the context of a short-term forecast, Vince notes one feature “that any trader should keep in mind that the market never moves in a straight line.” Therefore, a slight correction can be expected. 

“It’s difficult to assess what’s next, however, in terms of purely position trading, I believe that it would make sense to take profit, take a step aside, and see how the market behaves before eventually finding better entry points to continue playing,” CoinsPaid’s trader shares his tactic. “Buying now feels like chasing the market, so I don’t expect many new buyers to get in for March, or else it would be weak hands driven by FOMO. In addition to that, 25,000 USD/BTC seems to be quite a strong resistance level to break, especially in a world where tensions surrounding the Ukraine-Russia conflict seem to escalate with every day that passes,” Vince sums up the situation. 

Alexander Visotsky, Founder of the IT platform for business management Tonnus, states Bitcoin’s weak growth in February but admits that the situation may change in March. The expert focuses on two aspects here: 

1. The general mood in the cryptocurrency market. In winter, big platforms filed for bankruptcy. First of all, there was the development of the FTX case, and now it’s accompanied by news about Coinbase’s losses. Though this is predictable news, it still doesn’t contribute to a positive mood.
2. The Fed will likely continue to tighten monetary policy due to the need to lower inflation. If the key rate rises, more capital will flow out of high-risk assets. 

Technical Analysis of Bitcoin 

Maxim Poptsov, Co-Founder of Connect Invest, predicts BTC’s future price movement based on technical analysis: “Looking back, Bitcoin reached the Fibonacci levels’ targets, namely tested the “Zone 27” at $25,300, and then went into a local decline to $22,900. In terms of Fibonacci trading, the target is achieved. The nearest mid-term correction target for March is $19,200, which lies perfectly on the September-October 2022 volumetric level. 

I’m confident that the breakout of $25,200-25,300 will also continue in March. A breakout of that level would open the way to the volumetric level of $30,000 and the monthly trend reversal zone of $28,600-35,000. This picture perfectly fits the continuation of global correction because when BTC reaches $30,000, the whales will start to dump their local long positions. If the price goes to $30,000, we expect the continuation of global correction and a test of the lows of $15,000-16,000, something our team expects to happen within half a year.”

“However, a move to $30,000 may be hindered by negative fundamentals in the U.S. stock market. After the release of labor market data, GDP, consumer activity in the USA, and growing inflation, it became clear that the Fed wouldn’t stop raising the rate and would increase it several more times (March, May, and June). This hawkish policy by Fed officials will have the most negative effect on the markets, leading the S&P 500 to hit the October 2022 lows. Given that the market hasn’t yet put a 5.5% rate in prices, I expect a decline throughout March. This behavior of the U.S. market will put pressure on Bitcoin’s price, which could trigger a correction to at least the $19,200 level. This scenario is possible in case the daily trend change level of $21,370 is broken and fixed below it.”

Trader Oksana Belyanskaya, Founder of Rocket PR, added: “Judging by the monthly data, the real growth of BTC may start in three or four months. March has historically been the month when Bitcoin lost an average of 4-5% of its value. Frankly speaking, for the last two years, March was profitable, but the statistics of two profitable years vs. eight years of losses don’t let us relax. All in all, we can expect a 3-4% drop.

There’ll be several important market events at the beginning of March, including: 

• the labor market report from the Fed on March 10, 2022; 

• the inflation report from the Fed on March 14, 2022. 

Additionally, the court ruling in the SEC-Ripple standoff will be crucial (if there’ll be one). It may negatively impact the market.” 

March Forecasts for Altcoins

Sergei Khitrov, Founder and Manager of Listing.Help, notes that the crypto market will certainly “feel” a number of major technical updates in the networks of major blockchain projects that are scheduled for March:   

• Polygon; 
• Filecoin; 
• Optimism. 

But the most anticipated is Ethereum’s Shanghai update. It’s currently being finalized, and the hard fork is scheduled for March. Its main focus is the gradual unlocking of ETH that’s been staked since 2020. The update also includes several other technical changes to the Ethereum network. The Shanghai-Capella update could affect ETH and other related assets in the market. According to Listing.Help analysts, if validators start selling ETH, we’ll see a local price decline in the crypto market in March, even though the process of withdrawing staked ETH will be gradual. 

General Forecasts for the Cryptocurrency Market

Maxim Sazikov, Head of Sales at GMS, predicts further growth in adopting cryptocurrencies as a means of payment and their popularity in general. “Many large companies have already started accepting cryptocurrencies to pay for their goods and services, and this number will only grow. We can also assume that the governments of many countries will accelerate their work on regulating the crypto industry, which may lead to an additional increase in trust and acceptance on the part of society,” he suggests. 

Moreover, Maxim expects further development of blockchain technologies, the emergence of new innovative projects, and a general increase in the crypto market cap against this background. However, there’s a reason to be cautious because “cryptocurrencies are still highly volatile, and their prices can fluctuate quickly depending on many factors, including economic and political changes.”

Dmitry Mazanov from Arbitroom describes in more detail a range of factors that could affect the crypto market in March.

1. Regulation. Some countries, such as the U.S. and China, have already been actively taking steps toward crypto market regulation. In March, we may see more regulatory initiatives from various governments. Some of these initiatives could be negative for the crypto market and trigger a decline in crypto prices.
2. Demand for cryptocurrencies. Demand may be affected by events such as the approval of the Bitcoin-ETF in the U.S., the emergence of new applications for retail investments in blockchain, and increased interest in digital assets by institutional investors. 
3. General economic conditions. If the global economy continues to recover, it may lead to the growth of the cryptocurrency market, as digital assets can be seen as an alternative type of investment. 

The expert also points out that cryptocurrencies are highly volatile, and any market changes can cause significant shifts in prices. Therefore, it’s important to do your own research and remember that any crypto investment involves risk.